Odds Say CFP Champ Will be 1 of 3 Teams, Tide Leads the Pack
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With Clemson’s first regular-season loss since its fall to Syracuse in October 2017, how much has the College Football Playoff landscape changed?
Probably not much, to be quite honest with you.
Yes, Clemson probably will not be the top seed in the playoffs, and if Notre Dame beats the Tigers, they will not be in that playoffs at all. But the futures odds do not think that will happen; we will get to that shortly.
Right now, Alabama is the betting favorite with many sportsbooks to be the College Football Playoff winner, with odds of around +175, according to several sports betting apps operating in the United States. Ohio State is just behind the Crimson Tide at +225, according to William Hill Sportsbook.
Which brings us to the team that is currently the third choice: Clemson at +250.
Clearly, most sportsbooks have little faith that Notre Dame can beat the Tigers again in the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, mostly because junior quarterback Trevor Lawrence will be back under center. In fact, if you look at the current odds to win the ACC, Clemson is -550, with Notre Dame +300. Remember, Notre Dame beat Clemson 47-41 in overtime on Nov. 7 of this year.
So really, that loss did nothing to hamper Clemson’s chances, other than the fact they will probably get a tougher game in the semifinal.
The current No. 2 team in the polls, Notre Dame, is the fifth favorite to win the playoff right now with odds of +1700, behind Florida (+1400).
After the Irish, the odds fall off a cliff: Cincinnati and Texas A&M are at +5000, with BYU at +7000. There are some newcomers, like Indiana at +15000 and Coastal Carolina at +20000 (to make 2020 even weirder). But clearly, CLEARLY, the national champion is going to come from either Alabama, Ohio State, or Clemson.
It is stunning that the odds favor the three teams that have combined to win five of six existing CFP titles, and have made nine of the 12 title game appearances since the new format began in 2014.
The games still have to be played, and that could mean some games being moved around for the Crimson Tide. At the very least, the highly-anticipated matchup with the defending national champion, LSU, is set to be postponed until further notice since the Tigers experienced a COVID-19 outbreak the week before they were set to play Alabama in Death Valley.
Also, Ohio State has a very interesting contest this weekend with a suddenly top-10 Indiana team looking to move up into the top five with a win. Clemson already has a loss and has no margin for error but the same could be said for an undefeated Notre Dame.
The national champion is coming from those big three programs. Do not waste your money wagering on some team outside those three. Do you really see any team in America beating two of those teams in back-to-back games?
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